慧通綜合報(bào)道：

北京時(shí)間11月3日凌晨消息，美國聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)（FOMC）于美國東部時(shí)間周三下午2點(diǎn)（北京時(shí)間周四凌晨2點(diǎn)）公布了貨幣政策聲明，決定將基準(zhǔn)利率維持在0.25%到0.5%的目標(biāo)區(qū)間不變，符合市場廣泛預(yù)期。但該委員會(huì)同時(shí)表示，通脹“在某種程度上”有所上升，這意味著加息的可能性“繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)”。

美國聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)在這份聲明中指出，自今年早些時(shí)候以來，通貨膨脹已在某種程度上有所上升，但仍舊繼續(xù)低于聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)2%的長期目標(biāo)。該委員會(huì)判斷，上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率的理由已繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)，但決定暫時(shí)等待進(jìn)一步證據(jù)來證明形勢正繼續(xù)朝其目標(biāo)的方向發(fā)展。此次會(huì)議上共有兩名委員投票反對將聯(lián)邦基金利率維持不變，他們更希望將其目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至0.5%到0.75%。

以下是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)11月份貨幣政策聲明的全文：

自聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)9月份召開會(huì)議以來所收到的信息表明，就業(yè)市場繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)與今年上半年的溫和增長相比已加快增長。雖然最近幾個(gè)月以來失業(yè)率基本保持不變，但就業(yè)增長一直都很穩(wěn)健。家庭支出一直都在適度增長，但企業(yè)固定投資則一直保持疲軟。自今年早些時(shí)候以來，通貨膨脹已在某種程度上有所上升，但仍舊繼續(xù)低于聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)2%的長期目標(biāo)，這部分反映了能源價(jià)格早前的下跌以及非能源進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格的下跌。整體而言，最近幾個(gè)月中以市場為基礎(chǔ)的通脹補(bǔ)償指標(biāo)已有所上升，但仍舊保持在較低水平；大多數(shù)以調(diào)查報(bào)告為基礎(chǔ)的長期通脹預(yù)期指標(biāo)則基本保持不變。

聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)正在依據(jù)其法定使命來尋求培育最大就業(yè)和物價(jià)穩(wěn)定。聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)目前預(yù)計(jì)，通過逐步調(diào)整貨幣政策立場的方式，經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)將以穩(wěn)健的步伐擴(kuò)張，就業(yè)市場狀況將進(jìn)一步在某種程度上有所增強(qiáng)。預(yù)計(jì)通脹率將在中期上升至2%，原因是能源和進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品價(jià)格此前下跌的暫時(shí)性影響將會(huì)消散，就業(yè)市場則將進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的近期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)看似大致平衡。聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)將繼續(xù)密切監(jiān)控通貨膨脹指標(biāo)以及全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融形勢的發(fā)展。

在這種背景下，聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)決定將聯(lián)邦基金利率保持在0.25%到0.5%的目標(biāo)區(qū)間不變。聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)判斷，上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率的理由已繼續(xù)增強(qiáng)，但決定暫時(shí)等待進(jìn)一步證據(jù)來證明形勢正繼續(xù)朝其目標(biāo)的方向發(fā)展。貨幣政策立場仍將保持寬松，從而為就業(yè)市場狀況的進(jìn)一步改善和通貨膨脹重返2%提供支持。

為了判定聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間未來調(diào)整的時(shí)機(jī)選擇和規(guī)模，聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)將對有關(guān)其最大就業(yè)和2%通貨膨脹目標(biāo)的已實(shí)現(xiàn)和預(yù)期經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況進(jìn)行評估。這種評估將把一系列廣泛的信息考慮在內(nèi)，包括有關(guān)就業(yè)市場狀況的指標(biāo)、通脹壓力和通脹預(yù)期指標(biāo)、以及有關(guān)金融和國際形勢發(fā)展的讀數(shù)等。鑒于目前通貨膨脹尚未達(dá)到2%的形勢，聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)將仔細(xì)監(jiān)控朝向通貨膨脹目標(biāo)的實(shí)際和預(yù)期將有的進(jìn)展。聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)預(yù)計(jì)，經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的發(fā)展僅可令其有理由逐步上調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率；在一段時(shí)間之內(nèi)，聯(lián)邦基金利率很可能仍將保持在低于長期普遍值的水平。但是，聯(lián)邦基金利率的實(shí)際道路將依賴于未來數(shù)據(jù)所表明的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景。

聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)將維持現(xiàn)有的政策，將來自于所持機(jī)構(gòu)債和機(jī)構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券的本金付款再投資到機(jī)構(gòu)抵押貸款支持債券中去，在國債發(fā)售交易中對即將到期的美國國債進(jìn)行展期，并預(yù)計(jì)直到聯(lián)邦基金利率水平的正?；M(jìn)程順利展開以前都將繼續(xù)這樣做。這項(xiàng)政策令聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)的長期債券持有量保持在可觀的水平，應(yīng)可有助于保持融通的金融狀況。

在此次會(huì)議上投票支持聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會(huì)貨幣政策行動(dòng)的委員有：主席珍妮特·耶倫（Janet L. Yellen）、副主席威廉·杜德利（William C. Dudley）、萊爾·布萊恩納德（Lael Brainard）、詹姆斯·布拉德（James Bullard）、斯坦利·費(fèi)希爾（Stanley Fischer）、杰羅姆·鮑威爾（Jerome H. Powell）、埃里克·羅森格倫（Eric Rosengren）和丹尼爾·塔魯洛（Daniel K. Tarullo）。埃絲特·喬治（Esther L. George）和洛麗塔·梅斯特（Loretta J. Mester）則投了反對票，他們在此次會(huì)議上更希望將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)區(qū)間上調(diào)至0.5%到0.75%。

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)聲明原文如下：

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.

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